Soaring Fuel Prices Give Ho Chi Minh City's New Metro an Unexpected Boost

Middle East tensions sent oil prices surging. Vietnam's gasoline prices shot up 27% in two weeks. And one of the biggest winners turned out to be Ho Chi Minh City's Metro Line 1, which only opened in late 2024.

Ridership from March 9-12 jumped 24.7% compared to the week before the oil spike (March 2-5). Daily passengers went from about 52,000 to nearly 60,000.

Why Vietnam Is So Sensitive to Oil Prices

To understand why the reaction was so dramatic, you need to look at how Vietnam moves.

The country has over 80 million registered motorcycles — one of the highest motorcycle densities in the world. Nine out of ten personal vehicles are motorbikes. The reason is simple: before Metro Line 1 opened in late 2024, Ho Chi Minh City had virtually no rail transit. Hanoi only had two light rail lines. Public transport has been chronically underdeveloped, so motorbikes became the only commuting option for most people.

That means every increase in fuel prices doesn't just hit a few car owners. It hits almost every commuter in the country.

The average monthly income for Vietnamese workers in 2025 was VND 8.4 million, or about VND 10.1 million in urban areas. The minimum wage in Ho Chi Minh City is VND 5.31 million. A typical motorbike commuter uses 15-20 liters of gasoline per month. After fuel went from VND 20,151 to VND 25,575 per liter, monthly fuel costs rose by nearly VND 100,000. For minimum-wage workers, fuel alone now eats up close to 10% of their paycheck — and that's before the knock-on price increases in food and daily necessities driven by higher logistics costs.

How Much Fuel Prices Actually Rose

In late February, military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran escalated rapidly. The Strait of Hormuz — carrying about 20% of the world's oil — was disrupted. Brent crude briefly touched $102 per barrel, and WTI hit $96.

Since March 5, Vietnam has adjusted fuel prices six times (five increases, one decrease). RON95-III gasoline went from VND 20,151 per liter all the way to a peak of VND 29,120 on March 10 — a 44% jump. After a sharp correction of nearly VND 4,000 on March 11 and a small VND 335 increase on March 12, it settled at VND 25,575, still 27% above pre-crisis levels. Diesel rose even more, from VND 19,279 to VND 27,025 — a 40% increase.

And these are subsidized prices. The government's stabilization fund is covering VND 4,000 per liter for gasoline and VND 5,000 for diesel. Without the subsidy, RON95-III would actually cost VND 29,575 and diesel VND 32,025 — 47% and 66% above pre-crisis levels, respectively.

For motorbike commuters, the math is straightforward: filling up used to cost under VND 100,000. Now it's closer to VND 130,000. Food and daily goods have also risen 10-15% as logistics costs climb across the board.

Buses Are Getting More Expensive Too

The chain reaction spread quickly through the entire transport sector.

Fifteen bus operators in Ho Chi Minh City raised fares on 102 routes, with increases ranging from 5% to 36%. About 1,700 taxis followed suit — Vinasun raised rates by 11-12%.

There were exceptions. Phương Trang (FUTA Buslines), Vietnam's largest intercity bus operator, held its prices. Ride-hailing platforms Grab and Be also hadn't raised fares yet.

EVs Seize the Moment

While everyone else was raising prices, Vingroup went the other direction.

Starting March 11, its electric ride-hailing platform Xanh SM cut all fares by 10% through the end of the month. It also launched a "trade your gas vehicle" program: trade in an old gas car for a VinFast EV and get an extra 3% off; trade a gas motorbike and get 5% off.

The timing was sharp. When the cost of running a gas vehicle spikes, the economic case for electric becomes obvious overnight.

Hanoi Saw It Too

It wasn't just Ho Chi Minh City. Hanoi's public transit also saw clear growth.

The Cát Linh - Hà Đông metro line saw ridership increase 4.9% from March 6-9. The Nhổn - Hanoi Station line grew 13.2%. Subsidized bus daily ticket sales jumped 15%, topping 104,000 passengers per day.

How Residents Are Adapting

Ho Chi Minh City residents are adjusting fast.

Some commuters did the math: taking the metro costs about VND 44,000 per day — less than riding a motorbike. And with current promotions — free Vikki cards, VPBank electronic coupons — the actual cost is even lower.

Some companies have started allowing about half their staff to work from home to cut commuting needs. Residents are consolidating errands into single trips or walking for nearby tasks.

Ho Chi Minh City currently runs 66 green bus routes — 50 electric and 16 CNG-powered — covering 48% of the city's bus network. The city also launched a "Cash-Free Friday" program where mobile wallet users can ride buses for free up to four times.

An Unplanned Stress Test

For Ho Chi Minh City's metro, this oil price spike was an unplanned stress test.

Since opening in December 2024, Line 1 had been steady at just over 50,000 daily passengers. The moment fuel prices surged, that number jumped to 60,000 — proving the demand was always there. It just needed a push.

But there's a caveat. Metro fares are still set at the promotional rates established at launch. If oil prices fall back, some riders may return to their motorbikes. Whether the metro can hold onto these new passengers is the real test.