Vietnam's Birth Rate Hits Record Low as Young People Shun Love, Marriage, and Children
■ The population crisis Elon Musk is watching
On the 12th of this month, Musk reposted a Taiwan birth rate story on X with a warning: "Population collapse continues to accelerate."
Taiwan recorded just 7,946 births in November — a historic monthly low — putting the country's demographic decline back in the international spotlight.
But here's what you may not have considered: Vietnam, long seen as young and dynamic, is seeing its birth rate collapse at a startling pace.
■ Birth rate hits a historic low
In 2024, Vietnam's total fertility rate fell to 1.91, a record low and the third consecutive year below the 2.1 replacement level needed to maintain a stable population.
The speed of the drop is striking — it took Vietnam just three years to fall from 2.1 to 1.91. China took six.
■ The more developed the city, the fewer babies
Vietnam's fertility rate shows a sharp urban-rural divide. TP. Ho Chi Minh City sits at just 1.43, the lowest in the country. The Southeast region stands at 1.48 and the Mekong Delta at 1.62 — both well below replacement level. Meanwhile, the Northern Midlands and Mountains still reach 2.34, with Ha Giang Province topping the country at 2.69.
The pattern is simple: the more developed the area, the less young people want to have children.
■ Housing costs: it takes 50 years to buy a home
Why aren't people having children? Start with whether they can afford a home.
According to Vietnamese property platform Batdongsan, residents in Ha Noi would need more than 20 years of income — spending nothing else — to buy an apartment, and nearly 50 years to buy a house. TP. Ho Chi Minh City tells a similar story: 24 years for an apartment, more than 50 for a house.
Under these conditions, even renting has become a serious financial burden.
A two-bedroom apartment in central TP. Ho Chi Minh City rents for roughly 7,000 to 9,000 USD per year — easily consuming more than half a typical office worker's salary.
■ 'Too tired to date, afraid to marry, won't have kids'
"Unstable job, can't buy a home, rent is expensive, prices keep rising… isn't getting married and having kids just asking for trouble?" This sentiment is common among young Vietnamese.
Vietnamese media has a name for this generation: the "four noes" — no dating, no marriage, no children, no family.
A 2025 survey by the Vietnam General Confederation of Labour of 3,000 workers found that nearly 73% of unmarried respondents had delayed marriage due to low income, and only 8% had any savings to spare.
The data reflects this trend.
The average age at first marriage in TP. Ho Chi Minh City has reached 30.4 — on par with Shanghai and the highest in the country. The national average has risen to 27.2, up two years from five years ago.
■ Growing old before getting rich
Vietnam faces a harder challenge than Taiwan — it may grow old before it grows wealthy.
Vietnam's GDP per capita stands at around 4,700 USD, well below the economic levels that Japan, South Korea, and even Thailand had reached when they began facing aging pressures. Researchers warn Vietnam risks falling into a "grow old before getting rich" trap.
Experts project that if the birth rate stays low, Vietnam's population will start shrinking after 2035 and could enter outright contraction after 2054. Labor shortages and mounting social welfare costs would turn the country's demographic dividend into a demographic debt.
■ Government moves fast on policy
The Vietnamese government has begun shifting course. The Ministry of Health is drafting measures including extended maternity leave, birth subsidies, and priority access to public housing.
Whether these steps can reverse the trend remains unclear.
■ A problem without borders
Falling birth rates have become a shared challenge across borders. It is not just Taiwan — even Vietnam, with its reputation for youth and energy, cannot escape it.
The difference is that Taiwan faces low fertility as a developed economy, while Vietnam is heading toward demographic aging before it has finished developing.
Two different situations. The same hard road.
